Growth
Sustained expansion with contained inflation. Exposure is tilted towards global equities.
The strategy
A complete method, with clear rules.
Centinela starts from a simple idea: no asset works well all the time. That is why we work with blocks that respond differently to each economic regime and, on that foundation, apply momentum signals, trend filters and disciplined rebalancing with explicit criteria.
Diversification across cycles
Four regimes, one strategy.
Each block responds to a different economic environment. The logic starts from a simple idea, inspired by Artemis Capital’s Dragon Portfolio: build a strategy better able to adapt to the different stages of the cycle.
Recession / deflation
Credit contraction and flight to quality. Treasuries and TIPS act as a safe haven and cushion falls in risk assets.
Inflation / debasement
Loss of the currency’s purchasing power. Gold, silver, copper and commodities help preserve real value.
Extreme volatility
Crises, severe corrections and tail events. Long-vol hedges add extra protection in stress scenarios.
The method
Four pillars that shape the strategy.
- 1Diversification across cycles. Five permanent blocks that respond to different economic regimes, so the strategy does not depend on a single scenario.
- 2Relative momentum selection. Within each block we select the three assets with the greatest relative strength, measured over a 6-month window.
- 3Trend filter. If an asset loses its trend, it is temporarily replaced with short-term Treasuries (SHY) until it regains strength. This is how we reduce exposure when conditions deteriorate.
- 4Monthly rebalancing. The strategy is reviewed with explicit rules and automatic alerts. A systematic, disciplined process with no improvised decisions.
The portfolio
Five blocks, one goal.
Each block covers a different regime. These are its representative ETFs.
Equity
24%Global growth
SPY · EWJ · EWP · +7 ETFs
Long Vol
21%Decorrelation (CTA)
DBMF · managed futures
Hard Assets
19%Inflation / reserves
GLD · SLV · CPER · BTC
Bonds
18%Recession / deflation
SHY · IEF · TLT · TIP · LQD
Cmdty Trend
18%Commodity momentum
DBC · commodity trend
Performance
The market in panic mode. Your strategy isn’t.
Metrics from the 2020–2026 backtest with real assets and monthly rebalancing, against a 60/40 portfolio and the S&P 500 (SPY). The figures show competitive returns with noticeably lower volatility and drawdown.
| Metric · 2020–2026 | Centinela | 60/40 | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return (CAGR) | +14.0% | +9.7% | +15.7% |
| Volatility | 11.0% | 12.4% | 20.3% |
| Sharpe | 1.05 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Sortino | 1.29 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| Calmar | 1.04 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| Maximum drawdown | −13.4% | −21.5% | −33.7% |
2020–2026 backtest (6.5 years, RF 2.5%) with real assets: DBMF (CTA), Equity and Bond ETFs, GLD·SLV·CPER·BTC and DBC. Monthly rebalancing, no look-ahead. The 60/40 and SPY (S&P 500) are market references, not the strategy’s official benchmark.